Population projection for the city of Chemnitz

City Treasurer Ralph Burghart and Dr Reiner Hausding, head of the municipal statistics department of the City of Chemnitz, presented the new population forecast for the city today. According to this, two boundary variants were calculated, which span a corridor up to the year 2035 in which the population is expected to grow in the coming years.

Based on a population of 243,646 inhabitants with their main residence in Chemnitz at the end of 2021, the projection now leads to a population of 242,500 inhabitants in the upper boundary variant and 227,500 inhabitants in the lower boundary variant under the assumptions made for the year 2035.

The large margin of around 15,000 inhabitants shows the great dynamism and uncertainty that characterises the current demographic development, particularly in terms of migration. While all calculations were based on the same assumptions regarding birth and death trends, the two borderline variants differ in their different assumptions regarding expected future net migration.

Goal: Reduce outward migration - surveys to investigate motives

Mayor Ralph Burghart: "As a result of this projection, the City of Chemnitz sees it as a priority task to reduce out-migration, particularly in the area of educational migration and the out-migration of young families. At the same time, it will focus its efforts on increasing inward migration by further strengthening its position and offering as an attractive business, science, residential and living location."

To this end, the first step is to gain insights into young people's motives for staying in or leaving the city by conducting surveys among Chemnitz school students who are faced with the decision of what their future life path should look like and whether they are looking for or see their future centre of life in the city or elsewhere. A similar survey is also planned among students at Chemnitz University.

In addition, a survey is being prepared among the companies based in Chemnitz, which will focus on an assessment of the city as a "business, science and residential/living location Chemnitz".

In summary, the aim will be to promote Chemnitz

• as a science location (e.g. through further development of the university - development and establishment of attractive training programmes and disciplines),
• as a business location (e.g. by creating attractive, qualified job opportunities, creating/offering suitable framework conditions and developing the location factors that make Chemnitz an attractive industrial location for business relocations) and
• as a residential and living location (e.g. by expanding attractive housing offers; providing interesting leisure activities, creating a social living and residential environment)

to further establish the area.

Last but not least, one objective is to provide suitable building land in order to counteract the exodus of young families to the surrounding area and instead offer them opportunities in the city.

Processes that influence past and future population development

Natural population development

One of the key components for the development of the population is the difference between births and deaths, the natural balance. The developments of the early 1990s in particular have had a lasting effect here. This is reflected in the high average age of Chemnitz's population. The median age of Chemnitz residents is currently 50.8 years for women and 43.7 years for men.

The collapse in the birth rate in the early 1990s combined with a high outflow of mainly young people from the city meant that the city lost around 25,000 inhabitants between 1994 and 1998, mainly among those under 50 at the time.

These "historic" demographic developments were a key factor that led to the age pyramid that can be found in Chemnitz today. The city is not alone with this demographic problem; in fact, most major German cities are affected by an increasing average age of their citizens.

The age structure of Chemnitz is also reflected in the natural balance. Between 2016 and 2019, an average of 1,000 more people died than were born each year. The situation was exacerbated in 2020/2021 under the influence of the coronavirus pandemic and the associated increase in mortality.

It must therefore be assumed for the foreseeable future that the natural population balance for Chemnitz will continue to be negative in subsequent years.

Migration trends

The natural "shrinking" of the population can only be compensated for by population growth resulting from migration.

The migration of residents with foreign citizenship in recent years has been characterised by a high degree of randomness both in terms of the size of the influx and its regional origin, for example due to labour migration within the European Union, migration flows as a result of the global political situation and the occurrence of crisis or disaster situations.

The analysis of migration behaviour from 2011 to 2021 has shown that the outflow of the population with German citizenship from Chemnitz primarily had two main directions: on the one hand, the cities of Dresden and Leipzig and, on the other, the cities and municipalities in the immediate vicinity of Chemnitz.

The Free State of Saxony plays a key role in the migration of the German population anyway. In the period from 2011 to 2020/2021, around 61 per cent of all inflows to and 60 per cent of all outflows from Chemnitz took place in a city or municipality in the Free State of Saxony. This makes the Free State of Saxony a centre of migration for Chemnitz.

Consequently, the Free State of Saxony harbours important potential for possible future immigration to the city of Chemnitz. If one assumes that these migration links with the cities and municipalities of the Free State of Saxony will continue to exist in the coming years, the demographic development of the Saxon population will be an important influencing factor in the coming years. The Free State of Saxony was also affected by demographic change in the years 2011 to 2021, which led to a decline in population of around three per cent.

Background to the population projection

The last population projection for the city of Chemnitz to date was carried out in 2016 with a horizon up to 2030. At that time, the population trend was still characterised by a positive development trend, which continued until 2018, but then turned into a downward trend.

A new population forecast was carried out this year. On the one hand, the assumptions and results from 2016 were to be scrutinised and adjusted to the new real development trends up to 2021. On the other hand, the forecast horizon was extended to 2035.

This means that the present forecast is based on the trends for births, life expectancy and migration, i.e. immigration and emigration in the years up to 2021. While birth and death trends tend to be continuous from a demographic point of view, migration processes with inflows and outflows at municipal level can be very dynamic and erratic, even within very short periods of time. This is one of the reasons why it is necessary to adjust projections to current circumstances at regular intervals.