Population forecast: projection assumes up to 262,200 inhabitants in 2030
The city of Chemnitz is assuming population growth until 2030. Mayor Sven Schulze presented this population forecast to the Administration and Finance Committee yesterday evening. The forecast assumes a population of between 249,600 and 262,200 in two scenarios for the year 2030. For comparison: at the end of September 2016, the city of Chemnitz had a population of 246,773.
For Lord Mayor Barbara Ludwig, the current forecast is a good outlook for the future: "The efforts of recent years have paid off, because Chemnitz is picking up. While the population reached a low point between 2009 and 2011, it has been growing steadily ever since. The new forecast confirms this trend. We wanted the negative forecasts issued by the State Statistical Office in the past not to materialise. And we succeeded! On the contrary, the people of Chemnitz have counteracted the negative trend through hard work, creativity and the will to develop the city. But we should not rest on our laurels. It is crucial that we continue to work on urban development. Major projects such as the Capital of Culture bid are an example of this."
The forecast range of 249,600 to 262,200 inhabitants is the result of different assumptions about the number of people moving to Chemnitz in the coming years. When determining the assumptions for the influx of people, a distinction is made between three population groups: Germans, foreigners without asylum seekers and asylum seekers. For each of these groups, two borderline scenarios of the expected influx are derived from their developments in the 2011 to 2015 analysis period.
The projection is based on the analysis of real population development within the analysis period from 2011 to 2015 and refers to components such as the demographic composition of the population, births and deaths as well as immigration and emigration across the city border (so-called external migration). In addition, assumptions were made for the projection of the components births, deaths, outward and inward migration.
The City of Chemnitz's forecast is based on higher population figures than the projection of the State Statistical Office. The State Statistical Office has also made assumptions about the future development of the components births, deaths and migration (inflows and outflows) for the Free State of Saxony as a whole and broken down these state-wide development assumptions to underlying territorial units such as the City of Chemnitz. However, it is not known in detail which assumptions were ultimately made for the future development of the demographic components for the city of Chemnitz from the perspective of the Free State and why. The earlier forecasts of the State Statistical Office were also generally lower than the city's own projections.